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felis_ultharusThis morning, two seagulls landed on the sidewalk outside our basement suite. They stood there, looking in the window, and they sang their song of praise for the rain. The silver sky broke open, and gave us rain.
The seagulls always know. They come inland for the nice juicy worms that come up from soil to drink -- to steal a metaphor from a favourite writer, worms must taste like crème à la menthe to a seagull. They can predict rain better than any weather forecaster, and when I see them gather in the park across the street, I know it's coming.
In the news, the Liberals are facing five non-confidence votes tonight, after 10 pm. Three Conservatives will not be there, but the Conservatives aren't trying to get them in, nor are they asking for paired voting (that's when members of the other parties stay home out of courtesy to those who can't make it -- like Ed Broadbent staying home for the last big vote because one of the Conservatives was too sick from cancer treatment).
In other words, the Conservatives want to lose this one. Why? Because their popularity has plummeted. Their scheme backfired, and they're already talking about ousting Harper. If they go to the polls now, they're finished. But they can't back down now and vote for the budget, because then it's obvious that it was all just an election ploy (which it was)
There are, however, two wildcards in this deck:
The seagulls always know. They come inland for the nice juicy worms that come up from soil to drink -- to steal a metaphor from a favourite writer, worms must taste like crème à la menthe to a seagull. They can predict rain better than any weather forecaster, and when I see them gather in the park across the street, I know it's coming.
In the news, the Liberals are facing five non-confidence votes tonight, after 10 pm. Three Conservatives will not be there, but the Conservatives aren't trying to get them in, nor are they asking for paired voting (that's when members of the other parties stay home out of courtesy to those who can't make it -- like Ed Broadbent staying home for the last big vote because one of the Conservatives was too sick from cancer treatment).
In other words, the Conservatives want to lose this one. Why? Because their popularity has plummeted. Their scheme backfired, and they're already talking about ousting Harper. If they go to the polls now, they're finished. But they can't back down now and vote for the budget, because then it's obvious that it was all just an election ploy (which it was)
There are, however, two wildcards in this deck:
- Twelve liberals have threatened to bring down the government rather than let the same-sex marriage vote go through. Martin told them they'd be out of the party if they break ranks, but that's like closing the barn door after the horses have escaped. The government would already have fallen. If only 3 of the 12 break ranks, it could bring down the government.
- The Bloc Québécois is under heavy pressure to support the budget. The NDP threw in money for social housing, universities, and the environment, and put an end to the new corproate tax cuts, as a condition of their coalition with their Liberals. The Bloc depends for its support entirely on the unions and other left-wing organizations. There's a possibility that these organizations will withdraw their support if the Bloc refuses to support the bill. It's not impossible that some Bloquistes will break ranks with their party and vote for the budget, swinging things the other way.
